Ten years after the UK entered into a rushed public vote that divided the country and caused turmoil, a caution emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Authorities and electorate sleepwalked into Brexit and the identical might transpire with a national vote on a unified Ireland, triggering upheavals for which no one is ready.
That conveys the caution from two prominent commentators from both sides of the Irish border who have joined forces to analyse the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to create a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Structures Unprepared
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are extremely ill-prepared for a potentially fraught and monumental referendum.
"The crucial insight of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that developments can come out of the blue and can build support rapidly," the commentator remarked. "I would suggest that the institutional structure of our archipelago remains very unstable."
Book Publication Seeks to Stir Debate
The duo have studied the governmental, economic and cultural reasons for any constitutional change in a volume, The Case For and Against Unification, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to encourage dialogue on the topic with a series of speaking events that will take them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What concerns everybody, or must worry every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated the analyst.
"We must avoid a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, ambiguous question whose implications have not been clarified because then you find yourself with an highly split population where those defeated are not reconciled to losing and the those successful don't know exactly what it is that they have gained."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland official must arrange a referendum on Irish unity if it seems probable that a most voters would approve.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups say that moment is approaching, and a organisation named Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but both governments and unionists minimise the likelihood, resulting in ambiguity if and when there will be a national vote.
Lack of Substantive Discussion
Ideological statements for and against unification has obscured the shortage of serious debate, stated McBride.
"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the notion but the concrete planning which might go beyond that to make it possible is mostly absent. A great deal has taken place in scholarly circles but hardly any politicians or campaigners seek to involve themselves with the essentials. As an example, what sort of state should be desired? Unitary? Federal?"
Volume's Strategy
In the volume, neither author supports unity or the current situation. Both authors two essays that strive for impartiality in presenting the rationale for a united Ireland and the rationale against, marshalling economic and societal figures, historical precedents and constitutional models.
Debates range over flags and symbols, taxes, health services, elderly benefits, national debt responsibilities and the risk of pro-UK militancy. The aim is to enlighten and encourage discussion.
"Considerable attention exists in the subject but there has not yet occurred a dialogue," said O’Toole. "Discussion implies an recognition of the concept that there might be valid points on each side."
Parallel Votes
A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where citizens report they support unification but refuse paying higher taxes or adopting a different emblem to reflect pro-UK communities' British identity.
"The Irish government does need to establish what the offer from Irish nationalism is other than just declaring: 'We seek a united Ireland and we love you'," said the commentator.
Possibility of Public Vote
McBride considers a national vote in his generation is possible and that it could happen unexpectedly. "You could have just a reckless or a bad or a feckless government minister who says: 'Let's just do this and get it out of the way.'"
Each of the nationalists and unionists have plausible, justified points, he stated. "One side will win in this matter and the other side will in the end lose but each side has has something to acquire from the opposing positions."
Request for Wider Dialogue
Westminster should engage with the discussion, urged O’Toole. "This is about your state. It's a UK matter just as much as it is an Irish issue."
